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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."